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Dr Miloš Božović: Akademska tačka gledišta

Dr Miloš Božović, Vanredni profesor

Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Beogradu

Da li mislite da je ispravna metrika privrednog rasta, da li standard običnog građanina odražava statistiku rasta BDP-a? Šta najbolje oslikava standard običnog građanina?


Ovo pitanje je već duže vreme prisutno u društvenim naukama. S jedne strane, BDP meri koliko ljudi u jednoj privredi agregatno troše na robu i usluge. Samim tim, BDP po glavi stanovnika nam govori dosta o prosečnim prihodima i finalnoj potrošnji pojedinca, što zaista možemo asocirati sa standardom ili bar ekonomskim aspektom blagostanja. S druge strane, postavljanje rasta BDP-a, kao jednog od glavnih ciljeva ekonomske politike, podložno je kritikama koje se grubo mogu obuhvatiti u tri grupe (v. recimo Oulton, 2012).

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Prva od ove grupe kritika zasniva se na tvrdnji da BDP ne meri opšti kvalitet života pošto izostavlja njegove neekonomske aspekte, poput zdravstvene zaštite stanovništva, stanja životne sredine, ljudskih prava i sl. (Stiglitz et al, 2009). Trebalo bi da kritike ovde budu fer oko toga da BDP nikada nije ni zamišljen da bude metrika opšteg kvaliteta života, već samo novčane vrednosti dobara i usluga proizvedenih za namenu konačne potrošnje. BDP je stoga komponenta, a ne jedina metrika blagostanja. Uprkos tome, važno je napomenuti da se na uporednim podacima iz velikog broja zemalja jasno vidi visoka korelacija između BDP-a po glavi stanovnika i ostalih činilaca koje obično poistovećujemo sa životnim standardom. Fogel (2004) tako nalazi da potrošnja po glavi stanovnika, koja je tesno povezana sa BDP-om po glavi stanovnika, ima značajnu pozitivnu vezu sa očekivanim životnim vekom, a značajnu negativnu vezu sa smrtnošću novorođenčadi ili Ginijevim koeficijentom nejednakosti prihoda.

 

Druga grupa kritika insistira na tome da BDP zanemaruje raspodelu bogatstva. Wolff et al. (2012), recimo, pokazuju da u najrazvijenijim zemljama prosečno domaćinstvo od sedamdesetih godina prošlog veka naovamo ne uživa neke očigledne, direktne beneficije od privrednog rasta. Istovremeno, njihov nalaz pokazuje da je nejednakost među domaćinstvima progresivno rasla. Međutim, ova i slične studije su veoma osetljive na izbor alternativnih metrika koje se koriste kao ocena kvaliteta života, a za koje se ispostavlja da nisu robusne. Dodatno, BDP nije ni osmišljen da obuhvati pojedinačne efekte, već samo zbirne.

 

Treća linija kritike zasniva se na tvrdnji da iznad određene granice bolji ekonomski standard prestaje da čini ljude srećnijim. Ovo je poznati Isterlinov paradoks (Easterlin, 1974) iz koga se često izvlači pomalo opasna implikacija na ekonomsku politiku, kako bi trebalo potpuno zanemariti nastojanja da se postigne privredni rast i usredsrediti se na politike koje promovišu „sreću“. Intuicija kojom se brani ovaj paradoks je najčešće ta da iznad određenog nivoa dohotka ljudi počinju više da obraćaju pažnju na relativne prihode u odnosu na druge u svom okruženju (rodbinu, prijatelje, komšije), kao i na svoj društveni status. Ukoliko bi ovakva intuicija bila tačna, imali bismo društveni konsenzus (bar u ekonomski najrazvijenijim zemljama) o načinu redistribucije prihoda, umesto da taj aspekt fiskalne politike bude upravo jedna od ključnih razlika političkog delovanja. Studije nedvosmisleno pokazuju i da ljudi u proseku zaista cene sopstvenu apsolutnu potrošnju više od relativne, i da ne pokazuju tendenciju uvećavanja slobodnog vremena na račun vremena provedenog u radu (Oulton, 2012).

 

Ekonomisti već neko vreme pokušavaju da pronađu razne metrike kvaliteta života koje bi predstavljale alternativu BDP-u (recimo Weitzman, 1976), a u poslednje vreme su se tim nastojanjima pridružile i druge društvene nauke. Većina tih pokušaja rezultovala je u indikatorima koji ili visoko koreliraju sa BDP-om, ili barem koriste iste statističke podatke.

 


Udeo investicija u BDP se postepeno povećava i približava proseku CEE. Molimo Vas za komentar u vezi sa politikom investicija – da li biste nešto promenili i u kom pravcu (javnost, struktura, kriterijumi ocene uspešnosti)?


Udeo investicija u BDP je u porastu i to je u svakom slučaju veoma dobro. Idealno bi bilo da tu pojavu prati i unapređenje šireg institucionalnog okvira u kome funkcioniše privreda. Ova tvrdnja nije samo intuitivna, već je podržana obimnim empirijskim istraživanjima i ima vrlo merljiv efekat. Schumpeter (1934) je prvi pisao o značaju veze između stanja finansijskog sistema i ekonomske razvijenosti zemlje. Posebno je važan odnos finansijskih institucija i tržišta kapitala s jedne i makroekonomskih performansi privrede s druge strane (Levine, 2005). U zemljama poput naše taj odnos ukazuje na moguće pravce ekonomske politike.

 

Ekonomski razvoj je veoma direktno povezan i s kvalitetom pravnog sistema. Na primer, stepen zaštite poverilaca pozitivno korelira sa stepenom razvoja bankarskog sektora i finansijskog tržišta. Postojanje neizvesnosti u pogledu poštovanja ugovornih obaveza među privrednim subjektima ili visoki troškovi i dugotrajnost sporova vezanih za naplatu potraživanja, dovode do manje dostupnosti finansiranja i poskupljuju kreditiranje firmi (Japelli et al, 2005).


Investicije koje su statistički i medijski najuočljivije su najčešće one koje su usmerene ka velikim preduzećima i obično nisu sektorski diverzifikovane. Međutim, ne treba zaboraviti da je jedan od bitnih faktora rasta dostupnost finansiranja malih i srednjih preduzeća. Iako se sa sličnim izazovom suočavaju i ekonomski daleko razvijenije zemlje od naše, svako poboljšanje navedenih aspekata
kvaliteta pravne zaštite procesa naplate, posebno u kreditnim poslovima, a zatim i aktivnija uloga berze, kao alternativnog kanala finansiranja, može uticati pozitivno na unapređenje poslovne klime. Na taj način bi se povećala i baza investitora i skup preduzeća koji ima pristup finansiranju.

 

 

Molim Vas za komentar na samodovoljnost privrede Srbije u kriznim situacijama, a u kontekstu pandemije kovid 19? Koje lekcije smo naučili? 

 

Privreda Srbije je prilično otvorena i integrisana u evropske i svetske tokove razmene. Prema podacima Svetske banke (2019), odnos trgovinske razmene prema BDP-u 2019. je bio 112,6%, što je dosta iznad globalnog proseka od 60,4%. Ovo može biti i dobra i loša vest u kontekstu nastupajuće krize izazvane pandemijom SARS-Cov-2 virusa.

Da bismo analizirali lokalne ekonomske posledice krize, potrebno je prethodno sagledati nešto širu sliku. BDP Srbije je tokom proteklih pet godina bio u porastu, a stopa rasta u 2018. i 2019. je bila iznad 4% (Svetska banka, 2019). U odsustvu krize ovakav trend bi najverovatnijedoveo do rasta potrošnje, posebno u kombinaciji s prošlogodišnjim porastom realnih prosečnih zarada za 8,5%, relativno niskim vrednostima kamatnih stopa (mahom zbog niskih/negativnih referentnih stopa Narodne banke Srbije i Evropske centralne banke, kao i negativne vrednosti EURIBOR stopa) i prilivu od oko 3 milijarde evra doznaka iz inostranstva.


Reakcija privrede na krizu zavisiće od nekoliko faktora, globalnih i lokalnih. Na makroekonomskom planu, manevarski prostor Evropske centralne banke da daljim smanjivanjem referentnih stopa spreči recesiju u zoni evra ne postoji, pošto je bazna stopa već na nuli. Stoga se države EU, kao i Srbija, mahom oslanjaju na ekspanzivnu fiskalnu politiku (subvencije, poreske olakšice i sl). Istovremeno, EURIBOR stope su i dalje negativne. Nakon početka pandemije počele su da rastu, da bi od druge polovine maja ponovo krenule da padaju. Taj kratkotrajni porast može se interpretirati i kao posledica percipiranog uvećanja rizika na međubankarskom tržištu nezavisno od monetarne politike, a usled nepoznanica oko stvarnih razmera i efekata krize.


U Srbiji bi eventualni porast kamatnih stopa na kredite mogao da potekne od povećanog rizika kreditiranja preduzeća nakon krize, tj. uobičajenog kontracikličnog ponašanja kreditnih premija. U teoriji bi se porast kamatnih stopa mogao donekle ublažiti ekspanzivnom monetarnom politikom (zbog veoma niske stope inflacije u Srbiji postoji još prostora za to, doduše, ne previše, jer je referenta stopa NBS već veoma niska). Kroz fiskalni kanal, Garantna šema Ministarstva finansija, kao jedna od mera, mogla bi delimično ublažiti skok premija koje banke zahtevaju za povećani kreditni rizik.


Verovatno je da će glavni gubitnici krize, kako kod nas tako i u drugim zemljama, biti mala i srednja preduzeća, posebno ona u uslužnim delatnostima. To delom može biti uzrokovano skupljim finansiranjem poslovanja kroz bankarski kanal, koji ni u uspešnim godinama nije usmeravao primarnu pažnju ka ovom delu privrede, delimično i iz razloga o kojima smo diskutovali u prethodnom pitanju. Drugim delom, postoji opasnost i od pada likvidnosti šireg skupa činilaca u kreditnom lancu, koji su i u redovnim okolnostima problematični u brzini izmirivanja obaveza.


Iako realno uvećanje zarada i akumulirani prilivi načelno utiču povoljno na agregatnu tražnju, nije izgledno da samo ova dva faktora mogu da ublaže kaskadni pad kupovne moći. Sve će zavisiti od stvarnog intenziteta recesije. Privreda SAD je samo u drugom kvartalu 2020. pala za spektakularnih 31,7% po podacima Federalnih rezervi. Predviđanja za neke evropske zemlje takođe idu do negativnih dvocifrenih stopa u padu BDP-a, a samo prvi paket ekonomskih mera u Srbiji, po podacima Fiskalnog saveta i Ministarstva finansija, nosiće budžetski trošak od 11% BDP-a. Malo je verovatno da u takvim okolnostima neće doći do smanjenog odobravanja finansiranja poslovanja, a povećani kreditni rizik stanovništva usled recesije može rezultovati opet u dodatno uvećanim kamatnim stopama.


Kad sve uzmemo u obzir, teško je poverovati da se kriza može izbeći, iako će agregatni makroefekat verovatno biti izbalansiran između privrede i stanovništva. Integrisanost privrede u globalne tokove razmene je ekonomski veoma povoljno, ali ima i svoju drugu stranu – neumitno dovodi do prelivanja efekata globalne krize, posebno iz ekonomski najrazvijenijih zemalja koje su loše upravljale posledicama pandemije.

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