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Bojan Žepinić: Deglobalizacija kao šansa za Srbiju i region

Bojan Žepinić, Rukovodeći partner u kompaniji TPA Srbija

Da li izazovi globalizacije navode na redefinisanje dosadašnjeg lanca snabdevanja?


Celokupno izmeštanje proizvodnih i dobavljačkih lanaca u Kinu i druge zemlje na Dalekom istoku se ispostavilo kao veliki rizik iz ugla proizvođača iz zapadnog sveta tokom „korona krize“. Izazovi, koji su postojali u tom smislu, tokom vrhunca pandemije u velikoj meri su već prouzrokovali razmišljanja na temu održivosti globalnih lanaca snabdevanja. Evropska privreda, ali i politički faktori, u prethodnom periodu bavili su se negativnim efektima globalizovane proizvodnje i procenom napora da se u Evropu vrati barem sistemski relevantna proizvodnja. Ovako nešto se već desilo u Evropi sedamdesetih godina ovog veka, kada se Evropa suočila s visokim cenama i nestašicama nafte i njenih derivata.

Drugi aspekt koji može usmeriti nove proizvodne kapacitete u region, a samim tim i u Srbiju, kao jednu od najagilnijih investicionih destinacija u istom, jeste okolnost da je „korona kriza“ otkrila ranjivost proizvođača koji su svoju proizvodnju bazirali na „just-in-time“ modelu upravljanja zalihama. Iako je ovaj model upravljanja zalihama nastao kao rezultat napora da se proizvedu visokokvalitetni i konkurentni proizvodi, uz minimiziranje troškova njihove proizvodnje, problemi s transportom zaliha tokom vrhunca pandemije će sigurno naterati velike proizvođače iz Evrope da regionalizuju svoje lance snabdevanja. Jer, ovde nije reč samo o ovogodišnjoj pandemiji, već projekciji da u globalizovanom svetu takve situacije mogu da se ponavljaju u određenim intervalima.

 

Ovaj trend može dovesti do fizički bliže i veće proizvodnje zaliha i s tim u vezi će se otvoriti i nove poslovne mogućnosti (npr. logistika, infrastruktura, izgradnja skladišnih objekata, itd).

 

Da rezimiramo, rešavanje izazova koji su se pojavili u „korona krizi“ će biti ogroman izazov u narednim godinama, što će stvoriti nove mogućnosti za preduzeća i nacionalne privrede u jugoistočnoj Evropi, samim tim i za Srbiju.

 

 

Pored tradicionalnih/standardnih uloga, kojoj od navedenih uloga rukovodilac finansija treba da posveti veću pažnju?

 

*Istraživanje je sprovedeno nad 55 finansijskih direkora lokalnih i globalnih kompanija koje posluju u Srbiji. Izvor: TPA Srbija
*Istraživanje je sprovedeno nad 55 finansijskih direkora lokalnih i globalnih kompanija koje posluju u Srbiji. Izvor: TPA Srbija

Tržišni trendovi i evolucija funkcije finansijskih direktora nalaže i redizajniranje odgovornosti i nadležnosti finansijske funkcije. Istraživanje ukazuje da postoji poteba za inoviranjem kako internih, tako i eksternih aspekata u radu. 41,6% ispitanika je izrazilo stav da treba veću pažnju da posvete organizacionoj transformaciji, 21,8 % big data i analizi, 18,2% osnaživanju digitalne pismenosti, a 18,2% većoj tržišnoj orijentaciji. Potrebe su vrlo diversifikovane, ali jasno ukazuju da je poželjno preispitivanje postojećeg modela rada.

 

Rezultati ankete koje je sprovela kompanija TPA Srbija ukazuju na to da 87,3% kompanija ne razmatra redefinisanje dosadašnjeg lanca snabdevanja, 10,9% još uvek planira nov način organizacije lanca snabdevanja, dok je 1,8% odlučilo da preusmeri snabdevanje sa globalnih na lokalne i regionalne dobavljače.

 

Srbija je, kada govorimo o periodu pred „korona krizu“, bila dobro pozicionirana i percipirana kao poželjna destinacija sa strane investitora i to je jedno od najvećih dostignuća naše ekonomije posle svetske ekonomske krize iz 2008. godine.

 

Na primer, u 2018. godini, Srbija je imala preko 100 projekata stranih „grinfild“ investicija i bila svrstana u vodeće destinacije za strane investitore u svetu, uzimajući u obzir veličinu ekonomije. To je ozbiljan kapital za naredni period i smatram da se uz fino podešavanje u odnosu na profil investitora kojima se obraćamo (tu pre svega mislim na stavljanje fokusa na visokorazvijene tehnologije, sa većom dodatom vrednošću) možemo, uslovno rečeno, okoristiti u postkriznom periodu.

 

Akcenat mora da bude i na zaštiti životne sredine, koja se rigorozno sprovodi na zapadu, i nije poželjno da dozvolimo da investitori dolaze u Srbiju jer im se gleda kroz prste, posebno ako imaju širi društveni uticaj ili zbog velikog broja zaposlenih ili uticaja na BDP ili izvoz. Na kraju, poslednji, ali i najbitniji korak, koji lokalno moramo da napravimo, jeste da dodatno unapredimo poslovni ekosistem i to mora da bude apsolutni prioritet za buduće uspehe u privlačenju novih stranih investitora. I ne samo to, već i da unapređeni sudski sistem, jednoobrazna primena pravnih propisa, efikasnost javne uprave, itd. budu instrument podsticanja nedovoljnih domaćih investitora, pre svega govorim o sektoru malih i srednjih preduzeća.

 


Kada očekujete da će ekonomske posledice krize izazvane Covidom-19 biti najvidljivije?

 

Brzina tržišnih promena utiče na dužinu vremenskog okvira u okviru koga se planira. Poznato je da su turizam, ugostiteljstvo, auto industrija, avio industrija među prvima osetile posledice krize. Sada se već prognozira o posledicama Covida-19 za industrije koje će ih sekundarno osetiti. 54,5% ispitanika smatra da će ekonomske posledice krize izazvane Covidom-19 biti najvidljivije tokom 2021. godine, 27,3% smatra da će to biti tokom druge polovine 2020. godine, 12,7% smatra da će biti tokom narednih 5 godina, a samo 5,5% smatra da će biti tokom 2022. godine.

 

Naši klijenti, uz par izuzetaka, nastavljaju sa investicijama ili započinju planirane. Svakako da je kod određenog broja privrednih subjekata, što potvrđuje i naša anketa, došlo do usporavanja u odnosu na investicione planove, ali to u nekim slučajevima i nije bila njihova odluka. Naime, u toku vanrednog stanja, pa i tokom leta, određene investicije, zbog epidemioloških mera ili ograničenja, tj. poteškoća kod dolazaka poslovnih ljudi iz inostranstva, jednostavno nisu mogle da se realizuju.


Pozitivno je to što su makroekonomski podaci koji dolaze iz nama najbitnijih privreda, odnosno od naših najznačajnijih poslovnih partnera, povoljnije od očekivanih. Takođe, većina tih država je ponudila izdašne pakete pomoći svojim kompanijama, te se kataklizmična predviđanja o ekonomskim kretanjima u narednih par godina izvesno neće ostvariti.

 

Ovo, međutim, ne znači da nas u narednih nekoliko godina ne očekuju i loše vesti. Ono što je izvesno je to da će određeni broj multinacionalnih kompanija posegnuti za reorganizacijom, koja će podrazumevati da se entiteti iz naše zemlje gase i aktivnosti koje su ti entiteti obavljali pripajaju nekoj od jakih regionalnih zemalja u tim grupama ili snažnom lokalnom partneru. Takođe, za očekivati je i da će domaći poslovni sistemi, posebno oni u ranjivim industrijama ili oni koji su „korona krizu“ dočekali sa prenapregnutim finansijama imati ozbiljne probleme u narednih par godina. Jednostavno, domaći sektor malih i srednjih preduzeća nema kapacitete, a tu pre svega mislim na obezbeđivanje potrebne likvidnosti da se u dužem vremenskom periodu nosi sa izazovima umanjenog obima poslovanja.

 


Šta znači, iz Vašeg ugla, dolazak Američke finansijske korporacije (DFC) u Srbiju?


Prema zvaničnom saopštenju za medije, koje je Američka finansijska korporacija (DFC) izdala 15. septembra 2020. godine, najavljeno je da će se ta organizacija u Srbiji pre svega baviti izgradnjom auto-puta Beograd–Priština. Postoje neke nezvanične najave da će aktivnosti te organizacije obuhvatiti i druge ekonomske teme (energetika, upravljanje otpadom, socijalno preduzetništvo, itd). Ono što se meni čini bitnim jeste to da je dolazak DFC-a potencijalno značajan podsticaj za dolazak novog talasa komercijalnih američkih investitora. Mislim da je nepotrebno napominjati da su upravo američke kompanije te koje postavljaju najviše globalne standarde u gotovo svim industrijama.

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  3824. The Registry Editor is a very vital tool, especially for any fan of computers, be it administrators, programmers or even a regular user. What’s more, not only does it give us access to a lot of parameters regarding the running of our machine, but it also stands for one of the major causes of system crashes.
    This is why it is important to protect it as rigorously as possible; one of the best ways to do so in a secure manner is by using different registry cleaners [Link deleted]
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  3825. [accordion_tab title=”About”]
    more…

    JTorrent is a lightweight torrent client tool with built-in web client that helps to download torrents more quickly and easily.
    JTorrent is a low-resource program that is very easy to install and easy to use. You do not even need to point and click, as most of the setup wizard’s areas are automatically taken care of on the fly. Even though JTorrent is a simple yet [Link deleted]
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  3826. It should go without saying that more devices help out your PC in order to go about its daily tasks. In fact, this is especially true if you are leading a busy professional life. If your laptop’s hardware keeps on slowing down at a predictable rate, it will prevent you from doing those basic tasks like browsing the web, browsing photos, or even listening to your downloaded music. In such a scenario, replacing all the components or just fixing the ones that are giving you trouble can at times [Link deleted]05e1106874 betlivo

  3827. Mind Map Mind, a free trial version, is a practical and visually-appealing task management program designed specifically for brainstorming and visual planning. Available as a standalone product with four different plans, the software comes with templates and articles to help you start using the software right away.
    Mind Map Mind supports brainstorming by offering you the ability to set up a topic list that lets you generate up to 4 folders and organize your brainstormed ideas. Within each folder you can add and group specific [Link deleted]href=”[Link deleted]>[Link deleted]05e1106874 colebya

  3828. Pros
    The program can synchronize its data through Dropbox and Google Drive.
    The Auto-Save option is ensured when closing the program.
    There is a default dictionary on the first startup that comes from the main file.
    Edit and copy text in any external web page with a single click.
    Schemes for locking certain parts of the text.
    Personal templates for convenient document formatting.
    Drafts panel provides a quick look at the last draft.
    It doesn’t create registry entries [Link deleted]href=”[Link deleted]>[Link deleted]05e1106874 benocha

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