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Bojan Žepinić: Deglobalizacija kao šansa za Srbiju i region

Bojan Žepinić, Rukovodeći partner u kompaniji TPA Srbija

Da li izazovi globalizacije navode na redefinisanje dosadašnjeg lanca snabdevanja?


Celokupno izmeštanje proizvodnih i dobavljačkih lanaca u Kinu i druge zemlje na Dalekom istoku se ispostavilo kao veliki rizik iz ugla proizvođača iz zapadnog sveta tokom „korona krize“. Izazovi, koji su postojali u tom smislu, tokom vrhunca pandemije u velikoj meri su već prouzrokovali razmišljanja na temu održivosti globalnih lanaca snabdevanja. Evropska privreda, ali i politički faktori, u prethodnom periodu bavili su se negativnim efektima globalizovane proizvodnje i procenom napora da se u Evropu vrati barem sistemski relevantna proizvodnja. Ovako nešto se već desilo u Evropi sedamdesetih godina ovog veka, kada se Evropa suočila s visokim cenama i nestašicama nafte i njenih derivata.

sajt boj

Drugi aspekt koji može usmeriti nove proizvodne kapacitete u region, a samim tim i u Srbiju, kao jednu od najagilnijih investicionih destinacija u istom, jeste okolnost da je „korona kriza“ otkrila ranjivost proizvođača koji su svoju proizvodnju bazirali na „just-in-time“ modelu upravljanja zalihama. Iako je ovaj model upravljanja zalihama nastao kao rezultat napora da se proizvedu visokokvalitetni i konkurentni proizvodi, uz minimiziranje troškova njihove proizvodnje, problemi s transportom zaliha tokom vrhunca pandemije će sigurno naterati velike proizvođače iz Evrope da regionalizuju svoje lance snabdevanja. Jer, ovde nije reč samo o ovogodišnjoj pandemiji, već projekciji da u globalizovanom svetu takve situacije mogu da se ponavljaju u određenim intervalima.

 

Ovaj trend može dovesti do fizički bliže i veće proizvodnje zaliha i s tim u vezi će se otvoriti i nove poslovne mogućnosti (npr. logistika, infrastruktura, izgradnja skladišnih objekata, itd).

 

Da rezimiramo, rešavanje izazova koji su se pojavili u „korona krizi“ će biti ogroman izazov u narednim godinama, što će stvoriti nove mogućnosti za preduzeća i nacionalne privrede u jugoistočnoj Evropi, samim tim i za Srbiju.

 

 

Pored tradicionalnih/standardnih uloga, kojoj od navedenih uloga rukovodilac finansija treba da posveti veću pažnju?

 

*Istraživanje je sprovedeno nad 55 finansijskih direkora lokalnih i globalnih kompanija koje posluju u Srbiji. Izvor: TPA Srbija
*Istraživanje je sprovedeno nad 55 finansijskih direkora lokalnih i globalnih kompanija koje posluju u Srbiji. Izvor: TPA Srbija

Tržišni trendovi i evolucija funkcije finansijskih direktora nalaže i redizajniranje odgovornosti i nadležnosti finansijske funkcije. Istraživanje ukazuje da postoji poteba za inoviranjem kako internih, tako i eksternih aspekata u radu. 41,6% ispitanika je izrazilo stav da treba veću pažnju da posvete organizacionoj transformaciji, 21,8 % big data i analizi, 18,2% osnaživanju digitalne pismenosti, a 18,2% većoj tržišnoj orijentaciji. Potrebe su vrlo diversifikovane, ali jasno ukazuju da je poželjno preispitivanje postojećeg modela rada.

 

Rezultati ankete koje je sprovela kompanija TPA Srbija ukazuju na to da 87,3% kompanija ne razmatra redefinisanje dosadašnjeg lanca snabdevanja, 10,9% još uvek planira nov način organizacije lanca snabdevanja, dok je 1,8% odlučilo da preusmeri snabdevanje sa globalnih na lokalne i regionalne dobavljače.

 

Srbija je, kada govorimo o periodu pred „korona krizu“, bila dobro pozicionirana i percipirana kao poželjna destinacija sa strane investitora i to je jedno od najvećih dostignuća naše ekonomije posle svetske ekonomske krize iz 2008. godine.

 

Na primer, u 2018. godini, Srbija je imala preko 100 projekata stranih „grinfild“ investicija i bila svrstana u vodeće destinacije za strane investitore u svetu, uzimajući u obzir veličinu ekonomije. To je ozbiljan kapital za naredni period i smatram da se uz fino podešavanje u odnosu na profil investitora kojima se obraćamo (tu pre svega mislim na stavljanje fokusa na visokorazvijene tehnologije, sa većom dodatom vrednošću) možemo, uslovno rečeno, okoristiti u postkriznom periodu.

 

Akcenat mora da bude i na zaštiti životne sredine, koja se rigorozno sprovodi na zapadu, i nije poželjno da dozvolimo da investitori dolaze u Srbiju jer im se gleda kroz prste, posebno ako imaju širi društveni uticaj ili zbog velikog broja zaposlenih ili uticaja na BDP ili izvoz. Na kraju, poslednji, ali i najbitniji korak, koji lokalno moramo da napravimo, jeste da dodatno unapredimo poslovni ekosistem i to mora da bude apsolutni prioritet za buduće uspehe u privlačenju novih stranih investitora. I ne samo to, već i da unapređeni sudski sistem, jednoobrazna primena pravnih propisa, efikasnost javne uprave, itd. budu instrument podsticanja nedovoljnih domaćih investitora, pre svega govorim o sektoru malih i srednjih preduzeća.

 


Kada očekujete da će ekonomske posledice krize iz
azvane Covidom-19 biti najvidljivije?

 

Brzina tržišnih promena utiče na dužinu vremenskog okvira u okviru koga se planira. Poznato je da su turizam, ugostiteljstvo, auto industrija, avio industrija među prvima osetile posledice krize. Sada se već prognozira o posledicama Covida-19 za industrije koje će ih sekundarno osetiti. 54,5% ispitanika smatra da će ekonomske posledice krize izazvane Covidom-19 biti najvidljivije tokom 2021. godine, 27,3% smatra da će to biti tokom druge polovine 2020. godine, 12,7% smatra da će biti tokom narednih 5 godina, a samo 5,5% smatra da će biti tokom 2022. godine.

 

Naši klijenti, uz par izuzetaka, nastavljaju sa investicijama ili započinju planirane. Svakako da je kod određenog broja privrednih subjekata, što potvrđuje i naša anketa, došlo do usporavanja u odnosu na investicione planove, ali to u nekim slučajevima i nije bila njihova odluka. Naime, u toku vanrednog stanja, pa i tokom leta, određene investicije, zbog epidemioloških mera ili ograničenja, tj. poteškoća kod dolazaka poslovnih ljudi iz inostranstva, jednostavno nisu mogle da se realizuju.


Pozitivno je to što su makroekonomski podaci koji dolaze iz nama najbitnijih privreda, odnosno od naših najznačajnijih poslovnih partnera, povoljnije od očekivanih. Takođe, većina tih država je ponudila izdašne pakete pomoći svojim kompanijama, te se kataklizmična predviđanja o ekonomskim kretanjima u narednih par godina izvesno neće ostvariti.

 

Ovo, međutim, ne znači da nas u narednih nekoliko godina ne očekuju i loše vesti. Ono što je izvesno je to da će određeni broj multinacionalnih kompanija posegnuti za reorganizacijom, koja će podrazumevati da se entiteti iz naše zemlje gase i aktivnosti koje su ti entiteti obavljali pripajaju nekoj od jakih regionalnih zemalja u tim grupama ili snažnom lokalnom partneru. Takođe, za očekivati je i da će domaći poslovni sistemi, posebno oni u ranjivim industrijama ili oni koji su „korona krizu“ dočekali sa prenapregnutim finansijama imati ozbiljne probleme u narednih par godina. Jednostavno, domaći sektor malih i srednjih preduzeća nema kapacitete, a tu pre svega mislim na obezbeđivanje potrebne likvidnosti da se u dužem vremenskom periodu nosi sa izazovima umanjenog obima poslovanja.

 


Šta znači, iz Vašeg ugla, dolazak Američke finansijske korporacije (DFC) u Srbiju?


Prema zvaničnom saopštenju za medije, koje je Američka finansijska korporacija (DFC) izdala 15. septembra 2020. godine, najavljeno je da će se ta organizacija u Srbiji pre svega baviti izgradnjom auto-puta Beograd–Priština. Postoje neke nezvanične najave da će aktivnosti te organizacije obuhvatiti i druge ekonomske teme (energetika, upravljanje otpadom, socijalno preduzetništvo, itd). Ono što se meni čini bitnim jeste to da je dolazak DFC-a potencijalno značajan podsticaj za dolazak novog talasa komercijalnih američkih investitora. Mislim da je nepotrebno napominjati da su upravo američke kompanije te koje postavljaju najviše globalne standarde u gotovo svim industrijama.

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