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Trendovi na tržištu nekretnina

Tržište kancelarijskog prostora Beograda nije beležilo značajnija dešavanja tokom 1990-ih godina, što je rezultovalo nedostatkom modernog poslovnog prostora na kraju tog perioda. Nakon 2000. godine, tržište se otvorilo i stvorilo dobru osnovu za intenzivan razvoj u ovom segmentu tržišta, dok je prava ekspanzija počela 2005. godine i nastavila se do 2010. godine, kada je najmanje 50.000 kvadrata poslovnog prostora izgrađeno u Beogradu svake godine.

 

Nakon trenda usporavanja kao posledice svetske ekonomske krize, period između 2016. i 2019. godine, obeležila je intenzivna aktivnost na tržištu kancelarijskog prostora, imajući u vidu veći broj projekata, te je tokom tog perioda ukupna ponuda modernog kancelarijskog prostora uvećana za skoro 170.000 m2.

 

Iako je u jednom momentu vladalo mišljenje da Beograd ima poprilično slobodnog prostora, stabilna tražnja i višegodišnja smanjena izgradnja u ovom segmentu doveli su do toga da zakupci imaju poteškoća u izboru kancelarijskog prostora koji bi ispunio njihova očekivanja, a posebno zakupci koji su u potrazi za kancelarijskim prostorom od 1.000 i više kvadratnih metara.

Kada je reč o 2019. godini, tražnja je premašila nivo od 100.000 m2 kancelarijskog prostora. Analizirano prema lokaciji Novi Beograd ostaje poželjniji deo grada po pitanju poslovnog prostora za izdavanje, međutim, rastući trend u broju transakcija zabeleženih u centru grada iz prethodne godine nastavlja se i u 2019. godini. Broj transakcija ostvarenih u centru grada u 2019. godini premašuje 40% u ukupnom broju transakcija ostvarenih u Beogradu u navedenom periodu.

 

Posledično, na kraju 2019. godine stopa raspoloživog kancelarijskog prostora je bila na nivou od 3.3%, a manje od 3% na Novom Beogradu, koji se tokom godina pozicionirao kao poslovni centar Beograda, što je ujedno i najniža stopa slobodnog prostora u poslednjih deset godina. Osim proširenja prisutnih kompanija, ono što je, takođe, doprinelo rastu tražnje je ulazak novih kompanija, a posebno kompanija koje su, zahvaljujući dostupnoj i obrazovanoj radnoj snazi, prepoznale Beograd kao destinaciju za osnivanje uslužnih operativnih, razvojnih ili informativnih centara (poput call centara ili centara za razvoj softvera) i relokaciju takvih centara iz regiona u Beograd.

Razvoj tržišta; Izvor: CBS International

Iako se očekivalo da će u 2020. godini tržište nekretnina u Srbiji biti pod velikim pritiskom usled pandemije COVID-19, pokazalo se da tržište poštuje drugačije zakonitosti i da nije u tolikoj meri osetljivo na spoljne uticaje. Nakon prvog polugodišta kada je zabeležen pad svih ekonomskih parametara i kada su na tržištu nepokretnosti zabeležene oscilacije, već u junu mesecu je počeo oporavak i pojačane aktivnosti na tržištu su nastavljene sve do kraja godine.

 

Prema zvaničnim podacima Republičkog geodetskog zavoda, ukupan obim novčanih sredstava na tržištu nepokretnosti Republike Srbije u 2020. godini iznosio je blizu 4,2 milijarde evra što je za 2,3% više u odnosu na obim novčanih sredstava u 2019. godini, dok je ukupan broj ugovora veći za 2,2% u odnosu na broj registrovan u 2019. godini. Tržište nekretnina u 2020. godini je po svim parametrima zabeležilo bolje rezultate nego u 2019. godini, što ukazuje da nije u tolikoj meri osetljivo kao što je to slučaj sa tržištima u zemljama u regionu i širom Evrope.

 

Gradilišta su ostala operativna, te je tokom 2020. godine u Beogradu završena izgradnja 10 poslovnih zgrada. Primera radi, izraelski investitor AFI Europe izgradio je desetu poslovnu zgradu sa 12.000 kvadratnih metara površine za izdavanje u okviru Airport City Belgrade Business Park-a, GTC je izgradio poslednju zgradu u okviru poslovnog kompleksa GTC Green Heart, koji sada ima 46.000 kvadratnih metara GLA, dok je Beograd dobio još jednu poslovnu kulu, Ušće 2, kao i drugu zgradu u okviru kompleksa Navigator, koje je izgradila kompanija MPC.

 

Sumirajući 2020. godinu, u Beogradu je izgrađeno skoro 100.000 kvadratnih metara kancelarijskog prostora, što je čini godinom sa najintenzivnijom građevinskom aktivnošću u proteklih deset godina.

 

Razvoj tržišta; Izvor: CBS International

Prvi put je ukupna ponuda kancelarijskog prostora Beograda veća od 1 milion kvadratnih metara, a ukoliko se podeli prema nameni, 766.000 m2 poslovnog prostora je namenjeno daljem izdavanju i 251.000 kvadratnih metara kompanije koriste za sopstvene potrebe.

 

U toku 2020. godine, godišnja tražnja bila je na nivou od 88.000 kvadratnih metara, ili 12% niže u poređenju sa rezultatima iz 2019. godine što je dovelo do rasta stope raspoloživog kancelarijskog prostora na nivo 8.6%.

 

 

Skyline; Izvor: CBS International

 

 

Iako je Beograd na kraju 2020. godine dostigao milioniti kvadrat, ovaj segment tržišta je i dalje nerazvijen u poređenju sa regionom, jer je ponuda Beograda manja za 50% od ukupne ponude koju ima Zagreb sa svojih 1,5 miliona kvadrata i milion stanovnika manje. Takođe, ponuda je manja od trećine onoga čime raspolaže Budimpešta, Prag ili Bukurešt, jer ti gradovi imaju više od 3 miliona modernog kancelarijskog prostora u ponudi.

 

Uprkos pandemiji izazvanoj virusom COVID-19, tokom 2020. godine nije bilo značajnih promena u visini zakupnina, imajući u vidu da su investitori primenjivali različite cenovne strategije određivanja komercijalnih paketa za zakupce koje su varirale od slučaja do slučaja (poput rent-free perioda koji treba da se iskoristi ranije nego što je predviđeno ugovorom o zakupu, odricanje od određenih obaveza i/ili podsticaji za zakupce, COVID klauzule, i slično).

 

I u narednom periodu, tržište kancelarijskog prostora ostaje u fokusu investitora, a trenutno je u izgradnji više novih poslovnih kompleksa na različitim lokacijama, takođe, sve češće vidimo i veći broj  starih objekata koji su trenutno u različitim fazama rekonstrukcije . Do kraja 2022. godine, očekuje se povećanje ukupne ponude za skoro 250.000 m2, što će biti rekordni broj novih kvadrata isporučenih na nivou dve godine, poput završetka izgradnje NCR kampusa u maju ove godine, zatim izgradnje najviše poslovne zgrade A klase u Beogradu Skyline Afi Tower od 31 sprata, završetka izgradnje projekta B23, izgradnja kompleksa Green Escape i GTC X, izgradnja novog poslovnog kompleksa Bridge Plaza u Bulevaru Milutina Milankovića, kao i rekonstrukcija starijih objekata Palate Beograd i BIGZ-a. Uz rast stope raspoloživog prostora tokom sledeće godine, ali i novih trendova vezanih za strukturalne i organizacione promene u okviru kancelarijskog prostora, može se očekivati pritisak na efektivnu visinu zakupa u narednom periodu do stabilizacije situacije.

 

Trendovi u zakupu

Podela ponude kancelarijskog prostora prema lokaciji; Izvor: CBS International

Sve više kompanija razmatra strukturalne i organizacione promene u okviru svog kancelarijskog prostora, pa će se insistirati na prostorima koji nude veću fleksibilnost. Veći broj kompanija će nastaviti da radi u transformisanim kancelarijskim prostorijama koje će biti prilagođene novim uslovima rada, dok će se neke kompanije odlučiti za smanjenje veličine zakupljenog poslovnog prostora. Očekuje se uvećana potražnja za novim dizajnom radnih mesta, uključujući više digitalnih i fleksibilnih rešenja i radnih prostora usmerenih na očuvanje dobrobiti zaposlenih. Usled direktnog uticaja pandemije izazvane virusom COVID-19 na promene na tržištu i zbog veće ponude kancelarijskog prostora, kompanija CBS International sve više pruža i kompletnu uslugu posredovanja prilikom obnavljanja postojećih ugovora o zakupu, kao i identifikaciju novih opcija na tržištu koje su prilagođenije novoj poslovnoj organizaciji klijenta u smislu veće fleksibilnosti.

 

CBS Project Management Tim je tokom 2020. godine bio dodatno angažovan na pronalaženju najadekvatnijeg enterijerskog rešenja u skladu sa izmenjenim potrebama klijenta, unapređenju postojećeg rešenja, ali i radu na adaptaciji trenutnih kapaciteta klijenata u skladu sa poštovanjem bezbednosnih mera distanciranja i omogućavanja apsolutno bezbednog radnog okruženja za zaposlene klijenta.

 

Usled velike aktivnosti u građevinskom sektoru, segment istraživanja tržišta nekretnina i razvojnog konsaltinga dobio je na značaju. U kompaniji CBS International svakodnevno analiziramo tržište nekretnina, od same ponude, pozicije konkurencije, kao i cene kvadrata i visine zakupa, tržišnih trendova do toga kada i koliko se gradi i koji su sledeći koraci, a sve u cilju davanja adekvatnijih rešenja u skladu sa potrebama korisnika prostora. Period u kojem investitori nisu prepoznavali važnost ovog procesa, odavno je iza nas i najčešće nailazimo na njihovu svesnost da je istraživanje tržišta protkano kroz sve segmente rada sa nekretninama.

 

U okviru redovnih istraživanja, kompanija Cushman & Wakefield sa svojim kancelarijama u EMEA regionu je sprovela istraživanje uticaja pandemije na način rada i potencijalno smanjenje prostora u 40 zemalja, i osnovni zaključak je da se trendovi kreću ka hibridnom načinu rada, koji podrazumeva veću fleksibilnost u korporativnoj kulturi. Rezultati pokazuju da ICT sektor nastavlja da zauzima dodatni kancelarijski prostor i čak je prisutan trend povećanja prosečne kvadrature koja se rentira. Takvim kompanijama je fizički radni prostor važan alat za unapređivanje korporativne i tehnološke kulture. Prema istraživanju, procentualno najmanje kompanija planira smanjenje prostora u Danskoj, Luksemburgu, Holandiji, Grčkoj, Kazahstanu, Portugalu, zatim u Srbiji, Bugarskoj, Hrvatskoj, Italiji, Norveškoj, Švajcarskoj i Španiji, dok nešto veći broj kompanija  planira smanjenje u Belgiji, Finskoj, Turskoj, Češkoj, Slovačkoj i Ukrajini.

 

Kada je reč o tržištu Srbije, veće ICT kompanije preferiraju poslovne zgrade, jer pružaju mogućnost da se organizuje prostor prema njihovim potrebama po pitanju unutrašnjeg rasporeda. Pored ovoga, kompanijama su od velike važnosti i dodatni sadržaji koje mogu ponuditi zaposlenima u cilju privlačenja talenata. Tražnja za kvalitetnim kancelarijskim prostorom je obično generisana od strane farmaceutskih kompanija, banaka, pravnih i drugih profesionalnih usluga, telekomunikacionih i IT kompanija, međutim, u poslednjem periodu, IT kompanije i visoko-tehnološke kompanije su daleko najaktivniji klijenti na tržištu i imaju učešće od 35-40% u ukupnoj godišnjoj tražnji koja se zabeleži u Beogradu.

 

Kupovina kancelarijskog prostora

Brigde Plaza; Izvor: CBS International

Kada je reč o kupovini kancelarijskog prostora, takav trend nije bio zastupljen na našem tržištu, uglavnom kao posledica nedostatka kvalitetnog prostora jer su kompanije imale manji broj prostora na raspolaganju i, uglavnom, starije gradnje, dok se u narednom periodu očekuje povećana tražnja za kupovinom kancelarijskog prostora kao rezultat jačanja ekonomije i finansijske stabilnosti lokalnih kompanija u prethodnih nekoliko godina. Prva zgrada ovakvog tipa Bridge Plaza planira se na Novom Beogradu, gde će kompanije imati mogućnost kupovine pojedinačnog poslovnog prostora u poslovnoj zgradi sa  centralizovanim sistemom upravljanja i održavanja. Kupovina sopstvenog poslovnog prostora kao novog trenda na tržištu nosi niz prednosti takvog izbora, ne samo za kupce koji žele da posluju u sopstvenom prostoru, već i za investicione kupce za dalje izdavanje na tržištu. Kompanije sa velikim potencijalom i brzim rastom se, uglavnom, odlučuju za zakup, dok je kupovina potencijalno izbor kompanija sa stabilnim poslovanjem i često iz sektora usluga i servisne industrije.

 

Co-working

Co-working, kao koncept koji koriste preduzetnici, freelanceri, startup timovi, manje firme, prvi put se pojavio u Beogradu 2011. godine dolaskom kompanije Regus. Danas u Beogradu postoji preko 30.000 m2 prostora namenjenog co-workingu i 7 većih operatera koji posluju u Beogradu, uključujući Impact Hub i Spaces, pored Regus-a. S obzirom da co-working postoji duži niz godina, njegov uticaj na tražnju nije značajan, jer je to koncept koji privlači pojedince i kompanije koje imaju potrebe za manjim prostorom i na kraći vremenski period što nije slučaj prilikom iznajmljivanja prostora u modernim poslovnim zgradama.

O kompaniji CBS International

Vodeća konsultantska kuća za nekretnine CBS International je deo Cushman & Wakefield grupacije, jedne od globalno najvećih konsultantskih kompanija za nekretnine, koja broji preko 50.000 zaposlenih u više od 60 zemalja. Kao regionalni lider, CBS International beleži već drugu deceniju rada na tržištu nekretnina u Srbiji sa besprekornim rezultatom, pokrivajući širok spektar integrisanih usluga: procenu vrednosti nekretnina i razvojni konsalting, tržište kapitala,  izdavanje i prodaju kancelarijskih i maloprodajnih prostora, izdavanje i prodaju stambenog prostora, izdavanje i prodaju industrijskih objekata, prodaju zemljišta, istraživanje tržišta, upravljanje projektima, marketing, upravljanje i održavanje nepokretnosti. Za više informacija posetite: www.cw-cbs.rs / www.cushmanwakefield.com.

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