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Lana Vuković: Promena ekonomske moći – prevlast azijske privrede

Lana Vuković, Urednica, Business Intelligence Review

Najpopularnija metrika za procenu veličine privrede jedne zemlje je BDP (Bruto domaći proizvod), jer predstavlja ukupnu vrednost gotovih proizvoda i usluga proizvedenih tokom određenog perioda, obično kalendarske godine.

 

Dva najčešća načina za merenje BDP-a (metodologija MMF-a) su:

 

  • Nominalni BDP u tekućim američkim dolarima: Ovo je najosnovniji i najčešći način merenja i poređenja BDP-a između zemalja, koristeći lokalne cene i valute pretvorene u američke dolare koristeći devizne kurseve.
Lana 1
  • Prilagođeni BDP u paritetu kupovne moći u tekućim međunarodnim dolarima: Ovo je alternativni način poređenja nominalnog BDP-a između zemalja, prilagođavajući valute na osnovu toga koju korpu robe mogu kupiti u tim zemljama, a ne na osnovu deviznih kurseva. Ovo je način prilagođavanja razlici u troškovima života između različitih zemalja.

U ovom tekstu korišćeni su podaci MMF-a iz oktobra 2020, prema prilagođenom BDP-u u paritetu kupovne moći.

 

Izvor: MMF, Oktobar 2020. Zemlje sa najvećim BDP na svetu, prema paritetu kupovne moći, (tekući međunardni USD)

 

BDP zemalja fluktuira u različitim fazama ekonomskih ciklusa, međutim, vodeće ekonomije merene ostvarenim BDP-om ne pomeraju se tako lako sa pozicija koje zauzimaju. Zato je najzanimiljivije analizirati promene koje se dešavaju “na vrhu” u prvih 15 najvećih svetskih ekonomija, što ujedno predstavlja i 70% ukupne svetske privrede.

 

Prema podacima MMF-a, očekuje se da će azijske zemlje 2025. godine preuzeti apsolutni primat u svetu po veličini BDP-a, čime će se evropske ekonomske sile spustiti u niži rang. Dodatno ovome će doprineti sporazum o Regionalnom sveobuhvatnom ekonomskom partnerstvu (RCEP), čiji je inicijator Kina, a koji je  potpisan u novembru 2020, nakon osam godina pregovora. Ovaj trgovinski sporazum uključuje Australiju, Kinu, Japan, Novi Zeland, Južnu Koreju i još 10 zemalja koje čine države jugoistočne Azije (Asean), uključujući Filipine i Indoneziju. Petnaest zemalja potpisnica ima oko 30 procenata globalnog BDP-a i imaju ukupno stanovništvo od 2,2 milijarde ljudi. RCEP se smatra proširenjem kineskog uticaja u azijsko-pacifičkom regionu. Kina je već članica nekoliko bilateralnih trgovinskih sporazuma, ali ovo je prvi put da je postala deo regionalnog multilateralnog trgovinskog bloka. Nakon ratifikacije sporazuma, smanjiće se carine i pojednostaviti carinske procedure, ojačati lanci snabdevanja i unaprediće se e-trgovina izmeđju zemalja potpisnica.

 

Kina i Indija su imale snažan ekonomski rast već od devedesetih, dok je Indonezija tek nedavno ušla u prvih 10 najvećih ekonomija na svetu i očekuje se da će do 2025. dostići 7. mesto. Očekuje se da će Japan stabilno držati poziciju u vrhu, i da će se 2025. godine rangirati na 4. mestu, ispred Nemačke i Rusije.

 

Iako je SAD vodeća ekonomija u 2019. godini, prema nominalnoj vrednosti BDP-a,  prema prilagođenoj vrednosti BDP-a u paritetu kupovne moći, Kina je preuzela pvo mesto već u 2019. godini (17.38% svetske privrede) sa stablnim izgledima (projekcija IMF) da ga zadrži i dostigne, i u nominalnoj vrednosti i da ostane na prvoj poziciji i 2025. godine. Kina je 1992. godine bila rangirana kao 5. svetska privredna sila, da bi se 2007.g. probila na 2. mesto. Kina je postepeno otvarala ekonomiju tokom poslednje četiri decenije, što se pozitivno odrazilo na ekonomski razvoj i životni standard. Smanjenjem kontrole države, povećavanjem autonomije preduzeća, spoljna i domaća trgovina i investicije su uzimale maha. Industrijska politika koja podstiče domaću proizvodnju, učinila je Kinu najvećim izvoznikom na svetu. Kina se suočava i sa značajnim izazovima da zadrži vodeću poziciju, poput prosečne starosti stanovništva, sve većeg jaza izmedju urbanog i ruralnog područja i očuvanja i zaštite životne sredine.

 

Najveći pomak na listi najvećih ekonomija sveta napravila je Indonezija koja sa 12. mesta u 2007. godini izbacuje Italiju iz prvih deset svetskih ekonomija, zauzevši sedmo mesto u 2019. sa stabilnim izgledima da se tu zadrži i 2025. godine. Za razliku od Kine, očekuje se da će Indonezija, u narednim godinama značajno povećati svoju radnu snagu. Indonežanska ekonomija je najveća ekonomija u jugoistočnoj Aziji i zasniva se uglavnom na izvoznim proizvodima, a to su pre svega ugalj i naftni derivati, kao i poljoprivredni proizvodi pogodni za industrijsku upotrebu, poput palminog ulja. Indonezija ima institucionalnu gornju granicu nacionalnog budžetskog deficita od 3% BDP-a, što je dovelo do njenog relativno niskog javnog duga i kreditnog rejtinga investicionog nivoa. Međutim, regionalna nejednakost, nedostatak infrastrukture i institucionalni okviri ostaju glavni izazovi za rastuću ekonomiju Indonezije.

 

Japan se sa Indijom bori za mesto treće najveće ekonomije na svetu. Njegov BDP je 2019. prešao granicu od 5 biliona dolara. Japanska proizvodna i izvozno orijentisana ekonomija zasniva se na snažnoj saradnji između vlade i industrije i na naprednim tehnološki znanjima. Japansku privredu karakteriše i organizovanje u mreže međusobno povezanih kompanija (Keiretsu). Aktivan je u sektoru automobilske proizvodnje, treći po veličini na svetu nakon SAD i Kine, a ima i elektronsku industriju koja se ubraja među najinovativnije u svetu. Ograničenje za brži rast japanske ekonomije predstavjlaju ograničeni prirodni resursi, zavisnost od uvoza energije, veliki spoljni dug i smanjenje broja aktivnog stanovništva (starost populacije).

 

Indija je zasada odbila da pristupi trgovinskom bloku RCEP, jer smatra da bi to moglo ugorziti njen snažni rast, (prestigavši Japan u 2019. godini i zauzevši 3. mesto na listi najjačih ekonomija sveta). Indijska ekonomija je mešavina tradicionalne seoske poljoprivrede i rukotvorina uz uspon moderne industrije i mehanizovane poljoprivrede. Indija je glavni izvoznik tehnoloških usluga i uslužni sektor čini veliki deo njene ekonomske proizvodnje. Liberalizacija indijske ekonomije od 1990-ih, podstakla je ekonomski rast, ali nefleksibilna poslovna regulativa, široko rasprostranjena korupcija i uporno siromaštvo predstavljaju izazove za tekuću ekspanziju. Indija je i najmnogoljudnija zemlja sveta gde zivi oko 18% ukupne svetske populacije.

 

Uprkos snažnoj ekspanziji azijske privrede, Nemačka, najveća evropska ekonomska sila, čvrsto drži mesto pete najveće svetske ekonomije. Nemačka je najveći izvoznik vozila, mašina, hemikalija i robe široke potrošnje i ima visoko kvalifikovanu radnu snagu. Nemačka se, međutim, suočava sa određenim demografskim izazovima svog ekonomskog rasta. Njena niska stopa fertiliteta otežava zamenu starije radne snage, a visok nivo neto imigracije opterećuje sistem socijalne zaštite.

 

Turska ekonomija beleži snažan rast i preti da istisne Francusku sa liste “top ten” svetskih ekonomija u 2025. godini. U 2019. godini zauzma 13. mesto, (2007. godine 17. mesto). Turska ima uglavnom otvorenu ekonomiju sa velikim industrijskim i uslužnim sektorima. Glavne industrije uključuju elektroniku, petrohemiju i automobilsku proizvodnju. Njen strateški geopolitički položaj, koji je neretko dovodi u centar političkih previranja, kao i regionalni oružani sukobi u neposrednoj blizini, mogu dovesti do neizvesnosti oko ekonomske budućnosti Turske u narednim godinama.

 

Tokom 30 godina od raspada Sovjetskog Saveza, Rusija je krenula ka tržišno zasnovanoj ekonomiji, ali državno vlasništvo i intervencija u privredi i dalje su uobičajeni. Kao vodeći izvoznik nafte i gasa, kao i ostalih minerala i metala, ruska ekonomija je izuzetno osetljiva na promene svetskih cena ovih roba. Ipak zauzima stabilno 6. mesto najveće svetske ekonomije.

 

Nemoguće je govoriti o ekonomiji SAD izolovano od njihovog širokog međunarodnog uticaja. Imaju treću najveću populaciju na svetu (327 miliona), a njena ekonomija proizvodi oko 16% svetskog bogatstva. BDP per capita iznosio je u 2019. godini 65.254 USD po stanovniku, jedan od najvećih u razvijenom svetu.

 

SAD je sedište mnogih multinacionalnih kompanija i stvorili su mnoge kultne proizvode koji su veoma traženi širom sveta, kao što su Apple i Facebook.

 

SAD takođe pružaju nominalno najveći iznos međunarodne pomoći. Pored toga, privatne američke kompanije i fondacije takođe svake godine doniraju milijarde dolara pomoći. Američka agencija za međunarodni razvoj – USAID je uključena u niz misija širom sveta, i dodeljuje joj se 1% saveznog budžeta.

 

SAD su vodeći član brojnih uticajnih međunarodnih organizacija (G7, G20), osnivač UN i stalni član Saveta bezbednosti sa pravom veta.

 

Usled ovako značajne pozicije SAD, biće svakako zanimljivo, na koji način će SAD reagovati na ekonomsku ekspanziju Kine koja je postala prva ekonomija sveta sa izgledima da se tu i zadrži. Kina je takođe ušla i u svemirsku trku a, 2016. godine, Peking je pretekao Njujork kao „svetsku prestonicu milijardera.”

 

Kako bi uticao na smanjenje ogromnog trgovinskog deficita sa Kinom (od oko 500 milijardi dolara), predsednik Trump je 2018. godine uveo poreze i carine na kinesku robu u vrednosti od preko 200 milijardi dolara uz zaprećene dodatne carine. Kao odgovor, Kina je uvela trgovinske carine na američku robu. MMF je izrazio zabrinutost da bi produženi trgovinski rat mogao imati negativan uticaj na dalji globalni rast.

 

Najveći doprinos BDP-u, donedavno najveće ekonomije sveta, daje sektor usluga privredi koji uključuje finansije, nekretnine, osiguranje, profesionalne i poslovne usluge i zdravstvo. SAD imaju relativno otvorenu ekonomiju, koja omogućava fleksibilno poslovno ulaganje i strane direktne investicije u zemlji. Ona je dominantna geopolitička sila na svetu i sposobna je da održi veliki spoljni državni dug zahvaljujući i tome što je u mogunosti da štampa i kreira  svetsku primarnu rezervnu valutu (USD).

 

Američka ekonomija prednjači u tehnologiji u mnogim industrijama, ali suočava se i sa sve većim izazovima u vidu ekonomske nejednakosti i rastućih troškova zdravstvene zaštite i socijalne sigurnosti.

 

Na koji način će promena ekonomske moći svetskih ekonomskih sila uticati na privredu Srbije? Srbija predstavlja 0.1% svetske privrede, njenu privredu karakteriše niska akumulacija domaćeg kapitala za investicije, te veliko učešće uvoza i oslanjanje na strane investicije za privredni rast. Najveći strani investitori (kumulativno) su Nemačka, Kina i Italija. Obzirom na ove karakteristike srpske privrede, promena ekonomske moći najvećih svetskih ekonomskih sila neće nepovoljno uticati na privredni razvoj. Najveći izvozni partneri Srbije su Nemačka i zemlje CEFTA, gde se takođe ne očekuju turbulentne promene u privrednim aktivnostima.

 

Ograničavajući faktori za brži rast srpske privrede su depopulacija, kvalitet radne snage, tehnološki razvoj i upravljanje državnim preduzećima koja i dalje predstavljaju velliki udeo u privredi Srbije. Prema podacima APR-a, javna preduzeća u Srbiji zabeležila su u 2019. ukupan gubitak od skoro pet miliona evra (ne računajući otpis duga Srbijagasu od 1.2 milijarde EUR, u martu 2019), i to uz 244 miliona evra državnih subvencija (0.53% BDP-a).

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